Current Forecast (Located in NAFCU's Economic & CU Monitor, page 6)
Definitions for Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
Domestic Product is a measure of the total production and consumption of
goods and services in the U.S. GDP is measured on the product side by adding
up the labor, capital, and tax costs of producing the output. On the consumption side, GDP is measured
by adding up expenditures by households, businesses, government and net
foreign purchases. This data is used
to define business cycle peaks and troughs.
Real implies this data is adjusted to remove the effects of
inflation. (Percent change fourth
quarter to fourth quarter).
Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is the
number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the civilian labor force. (Annual average).
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI is a measure of
the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a
fixed market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI-U (for urban consumers)
represents about 80 percent of the total U.S.
population and is widely referred to as the inflation
rate. (Annual Rate).
Federal Funds Target Rate The federal funds target rate is the rate set by the Federal Open Market
Committee of the Federal Reserve Board (FOMC) for borrowing immediately available funds, primarily
for one day. The FOMC meets approximately every six weeks to consider whether any changes need to
be made to monetary policy. (Rate stated as of the last day of the period).
2-Year Treasury Rate The yields on treasury securities at constant, fixed
maturity are constructed by
the treasury department, based on the most actively traded marketable
treasury securities. Yields on these
issues are based on composite quotes reported by U.S.
government securities dealers to the federal reserve bank of New York . (Yield stated as of the last day of the period).
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
Rate The average commitment rate for
a conventional 30-Year fixed rate 1st mortgage loan. (Rate
stated as of the last day of the period).
FICUs Annual Loan
Growth The growth
in loans for all federally insured credit unions. (Percent change from previous year).
FICUs Annual Share
Growth The growth
in shares for all federally insured credit unions. (Percent change from previous
Vehicle Sales Light vehicle sales are divided between cars and light trucks (sport
utility vehicles, pick-up trucks and vans). Light vehicle sales include
both sales of vehicles assembled in North America that are sold in the U.S. and sales of imported vehicles sold in
It is considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for
roughly 25% of total retail sales. It is an annual sales pace that the
market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month. (Annual average).
Mortgage Originations The total dollar volume of 1st
mortgages granted on 1-4 family housing. (Source: Mortgage Bankers
Association, $ in billions).
Existing Home Sales Home sales are compiled by the
National Association of Realtors and are reported at a seasonally adjusted
annual rate. The information is
based on monthly reports of existing single-family home sales from boards
of realtors and multiple listing systems.
(Annual average, number of units in millions).
New Home Sales Indicates the
level of new single-family houses sold.
(Annual average, number of units sold).
or comments about CUEG? Are you interested in joining us? Please email us!
intends to provide the credit union community as
well as the general public with a biannual
report discussing both current macroeconomic
conditions as well as credit union-specific
financial activity in each of the five NCUA
of the foremost purposes for CUEG is to provide
a broad perspective on a variety of
macroeconomic and credit union growth trends. A
consensus forecast on the
economic landscape is provided to the public
free of charge.
|Through detailed planning sessions among the
membership, the issuance of press releases on
all current work products, and meetings with the
Federal Reserve Board, CUEG intends to remain
quite active throughout the calendar year.